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Monday, July 26, 2021

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This further damaged their credibility with the Japanese people. So, with the help of the incredibly corrupt IOC, the Japanese government got the Olympics moved to the summer of 2021 and doubled down on holding it. The public outcry in Japan was enormous with every major newspaper coming out against the decision ad foolhardy and dangerous. 80% of Japanese people were against the move, but the government went ahead with it. When the vaccines became available, the distrust of the government really showed. Few people are vaccinated. Some because they believed their government when it downplayed the virus and some because they do not trust their government. Sound familiar? There was no possibility of a “normal” Olympics. Even with no spectators allowed, athletes are contracting the virus and many sports associations and governments are strongly recalling all their citizens. It was a bad decision for which Japan will pay dearly for decades to come. The IOC, however, will make billions off the disaster.

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Edit 2: Amongst a smattering of good news in late June, such as Sajan Prakash breaching the Olympic A qualifying mark as the first Indian to do so, to more qualifiers putting the Indian contingent at 107, the entire shooting squad seems to have had an off colour World Cup. A bit worrying, but I sure hope they can use this to their advantage and peak like the other countries have done at this competition. I’ll have to temper my expectations a bit; 2–5–8 would be the worst, median and best case medals from shooting. I still believe in them and strongly feel that they will contribute around 40% of the total Indian medals. Wrestling- The second best shot at a decent medal haul, Bajrang, Ravi and Vinesh are my medal picks. Deepak won his quota partly because he was in a weak draw and his performances since have proven it. None of the other men (both FS and Greco-Roman) or women seem close to world class, but I hope someone like Pooja Dhanda can make it. Even though India won 4 more quotas through the Asian and World qualifiers, I don’t think any of those 4 are medal locks. Maybe Anshu Malik can spring a surprise but her approach is almost always a stand-up one and has few single/double leg or ankle attacks. She is also a bit young, so against stronger opponents, she could be overwhelmed. All three- Bajrang, Vinesh and Ravi are elite talent; Bajrang will have to make his defense iron-clad but maintain his offense, Vinesh will have to find a way to beat the Japanese girl and Ravi, the Russian. With Rashidov injured, it makes Bajrang’s path to a medal easier but Otaguro will be tough to beat, even without his shenanigans. Praying for all, not just these three, to be injury free.

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Starting with the men, Amit Panghal at first glance seems like a sure shot due to his exploits since his Asian Games 2018 Gold, but his recent performances have been worrying. I am still hoping he can deliver but his speed has been lacking; I sure hope he is not fading away. My medal lock is both Amit and Vikas Krishan, who is looking real scary after a brief stint in the pros; he has much better power and could KO/KD a few fighters. I think he is the best bet as he still has enough speed and knows how to score points in amatuer boxing. Manish Kaushik is a smooth player but he too seems like a dark horse; there are quite a few contenders like the Cuban, central Asians, Americans etc. Not so sure about Ashish Kumar’s or Satish Kumar’s chances; they are just not that elite yet but I hope I am proven wrong, especially in the case of Ashish who i a late bloomer. Also, if by some miracle, Gaurav Solanki gets a ticket, then he too, will be an outside hope. He nearly beat the 2019 WC in the Asian Qualifier.

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Edit 1: After a dismal display by the women’s archery team at the final qualification tournament in Paris, only Deepika Kumari will go to Tokyo, along with the men. Medal expectations from her in the individual tournament are limited but maybe she can spring a surprise in the mixed team. Prediction tweaked somewhat. Athletics:- Here’s hoping we earn our first (and more) medal from the cornerstone discipline of the Olympics. There are a ton of actual athletes this time that any other in recent memory. In the past, I remember seeing the Olympic qualification mark being broken just before the Games, either through doping or by going to a high altitude city like Almaty, then a placement like 25 or 32 at the Olympics, nowhere near their Personal Best. I have seen long jumpers, triple jumpers, throwers, middle distance athletes and others do this.

This time, it is way, way different. I can count several who will not be going to Tokyo to vacation but with serious intent. Neeraj Chopra seems the only legit candidate and even he is somewhat a dark horse because of his competition. He may throw over 90m by August but around 8 or so have done so as well. All 3 Germans can throw well over 90m; Vetter will be favourite to win Gold but he can be inconsistent; Rohler and Hoffman are 92+m throwers too. A few others like Yego can throw big too. Even with all this taken into account, hoping for a medal from Neeraj is a prediction I share as well. Unless Kamalpreet Kaur is found to be on PEDs, she is a favourite to at least make the finals of the discus throw (women). If she throws less than 60m in qualifying, then she was on juice when she threw over 66m. I am sorely hoping that wasn’t the case or that she is at least not caught.

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Saturday, July 24, 2021

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Editing for self analysis & aggregation of events so far (late March 2021). Just for self-assessment and to see how true my predictions will be (should the Games even take place fully). I’ll review and edit as I see more performances, look at the competition and see the final list of qualified athletes. I’ll also take into account predictions from reputed entities such as Gracenote. In the past few years, I have seen a lot of live action from the disciplines where India hopes to score big. This includes competitions like the World Championships, Asian Games, other international meets as well as domestic meets. I must give credit to the fact that live streaming of such events is now in full force, meaning at least the Indian audience cares more about the “Olympic sports” than ever before. TLDR- Expectations would be PBs (Personal Best) and PRs (Personal Record) from all who participate, but this is quite difficult as peaking at the right time is always a challenge. Should it happen, we should see over a dozen medals. Absolute best case seems to be around 25 to 30 medals which seems absolutely, stupidly, insanely dumb but that’s why I call it the best case; this is if everything goes right for the Indian contingent and everything wrong happens for their opposition (such as covid disqualifications or injuries, which I don’t wish on anyone).

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The men’s doubles pair of Shetty & Rankireddy are really talented but will have their work cut out for them, especially against smaller players who can play the net better. They also struggle against retrieving/defensive style pairs. I do hope they can medal, but they will have to show nuances to their game such as deft net play, other than the powerful smashes that they can conjure. I predict a best case of any medal and worst case of a QF exit. I can only hope that the mixed doubles pair of Rankireddy & Ponnappa can make it but they only played in a few tourneys (only 10 so far compared to others 20+), so their ranking points are very less. They can make a splash, IF they qualify. the women’s doubles paring of Ponnappa & Sikireddy do not look anywhere close to medal contenders but I wouldn’t be surprised if they make a splash and make the QFs, should they qualify. With just 4 more tournaments to go, it will tough for some of the fringe prospects like Kidambi to get in, unless they can come up with deep runs in two or three of the tournaments, particularly the BWF 750 Malaysia Open.

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The reason is that unlike 2016, when she was unknown, the others know her game and can plan accordingly. She also seems to have fitness issues that we saw at All Englnad, where she was panting against Yamaguchi and although she won a hard fought match, she wilted to Pornpawee. But, she gives as good as she gets and I do expect a very strong performance from her and predict a medal of any color from her. I won’t be surprised, however, if she doesn’t medal though, as this is not the same as before, when only the Chinese seemed to be playing. Now, many more nations are heavily invested and know each other. The men’s section is quite woeful, with half a dozen on tour but maybe one who can make it. I am hoping Srikanth Kidambi can stop being so inconsistent and start playing with confidence, like he did before. He may be a dark horse if he picks up his form and actually qualifies. Sai Praneeth doesn’t intimidate the top 10 players even though he has the potential & skills to cause upsets, like he did when he beat both the Indonesians to earn the historic 2019 WC Bronze.