This would be the exception that proves the rule. Mitt Romney was so far superior to the smartest (Newt Gingrich, 4th place), and the 2nd and 3rd place candidates (Santorum, Ron Paul) were so far out of the mainstream, that the best man won for a change. 2016: John Kasich was the best candidate by qualification and character (3rd place). The smartest man on the stage (Ted Cruz) came in second. The winner was the objectively worst person for the job. Looking ahead to 2024 (and assuming Trump will be unavailable), history would suggest that Pence, as the most qualified candidate, will come in second if he chooses to subject himself and his family to the abuse that is certain to accompany the next Republican primary season. If Ted Cruz runs, he’s in third place as the smartest.
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